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{
  "away": "Start",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0396,
  "explanation": "Away win: 15% against a market price of 11% (+4.0%).\nExpected goals Molde 1.77 – 1.26 Start.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 28% (uncertainty ±6.4%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nMolde missing 5.1 regular starters: S. Hansen, E. Hestad; Start missing 2.2 regular starters: J. Husebo adds 3.1 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) takes 2.1 pts from away win.\nMolde's attack (1.23× the league rate) takes 1.7 pts from away win.\nStart's attack (0.86× the league rate) takes 1.3 pts from away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.0% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Molde 4-4-2, Start 5-3-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 70% → 66% (-3.9 pts); Draw 17% → 19% (+1.5 pts); Away win 13% → 15% (+2.4 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 72% → 73%; Away win 12% → 11%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch.",
  "fixture": 1494782,
  "home": "Molde",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T15:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eliteserien",
  "league_api_id": 103,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.11,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-103-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "7.68",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.1496,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.0% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Molde 4-4-2, Start 5-3-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 70% → 66% (-3.9 pts); Draw 17% → 19% (+1.5 pts); Away win 13% → 15% (+2.4 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 72% → 73%; Away win 12% → 11%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch."
}