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{
  "away": "Mladost Lucani",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0135,
  "explanation": "Home win: 88% against a market price of 89% (-1.3%).\nExpected goals FK Crvena Zvezda 2.90 – 0.72 Mladost Lucani.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 79% (uncertainty ±4.5%), so it carries 18% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nFK Crvena Zvezda's attack (2.02× the league rate) adds 5.0 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nFK Crvena Zvezda's defence (0.77× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nMladost Lucani's attack (0.80× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.3%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 90% → 88% (-2.2 pts); Draw 8% → 9% (+1.4 pts); Away win 2% → 3% (+0.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 91% → 89%; Draw 7% → 8%; Away win 2% → 3%.",
  "fixture": 1553885,
  "home": "FK Crvena Zvezda",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T14:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super Liga",
  "league_api_id": 286,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.8912,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-286-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.07",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.8778,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 90% → 88% (-2.2 pts); Draw 8% → 9% (+1.4 pts); Away win 2% → 3% (+0.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 91% → 89%; Draw 7% → 8%; Away win 2% → 3%."
}