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{
  "away": "Aarhus",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0461,
  "explanation": "Away win: 22% against a market price of 17% (+4.6%).\nExpected goals FC Copenhagen 1.64 – 1.29 Aarhus.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 29% (uncertainty ±5.9%), so it carries 43% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nFC Copenhagen's attack (1.27× the league rate) takes 2.8 pts from away win.\nFC Copenhagen's defence (0.89× the league rate against) takes 1.6 pts from away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+15% goals at home) takes 1.6 pts from away win.\nAarhus's attack (1.09× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.6% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Aarhus 3-4-2-1, FC Copenhagen 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 56% → 54% (-1.9 pts); Away win 20% → 22% (+1.8 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch.",
  "fixture": 1549034,
  "home": "FC Copenhagen",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Superliga",
  "league_api_id": 119,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1743,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-119-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "5.11",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.2204,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.6% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Aarhus 3-4-2-1, FC Copenhagen 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 56% → 54% (-1.9 pts); Away win 20% → 22% (+1.8 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch."
}