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{
  "away": "Rubin",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": -0.0455,
  "explanation": "Home win: 64% against a market price of 69% (-4.6%).\nExpected goals Spartak Moscow 1.40 – 0.81 Rubin.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±7.7%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nSpartak Moscow's attack (1.23× the league rate) adds 2.0 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nRubin's defence (0.91× the league rate against) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nSpartak Moscow's defence (0.87× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-4.6%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Spartak Moscow 4-1-4-1, Rubin 5-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 60% → 64% (+4.4 pts); Draw 24% → 22% (-1.8 pts); Away win 16% → 13% (-2.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 68% → 69%; Draw 21% → 20%.\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1561417,
  "home": "Spartak Moscow",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T15:45:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 235,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6871,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-235-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.43",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.6416,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-4.6%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Spartak Moscow 4-1-4-1, Rubin 5-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 60% → 64% (+4.4 pts); Draw 24% → 22% (-1.8 pts); Away win 16% → 13% (-2.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 68% → 69%; Draw 21% → 20%.\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid."
}