Check any pick we ever made

{
  "away": "Ferencvarosi TC",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.0255,
  "explanation": "Away win: 62% against a market price of 65% (-2.5%).\nExpected goals Kisvarda FC 1.30 – 2.10 Ferencvarosi TC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 55% (uncertainty ±7.5%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nFerencvarosi TC's attack (1.19× the league rate) adds 2.0 pts to away win.\nFerencvarosi TC's defence (0.81× the league rate against) adds 1.7 pts to away win.\nKisvarda FC missing 4.7 regular starters; Ferencvarosi TC missing 3.7 regular starters adds 1.2 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) takes 1.2 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.5%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Ferencvarosi TC 4-2-3-1, Kisvarda FC 4-1-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 18% → 17% (-1.3 pts); Draw 23% → 21% (-2.2 pts); Away win 59% → 62% (+3.5 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1560256,
  "home": "Kisvarda FC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "NB I",
  "league_api_id": 271,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6485,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-271-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.45",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.623,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.5%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Ferencvarosi TC 4-2-3-1, Kisvarda FC 4-1-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 18% → 17% (-1.3 pts); Draw 23% → 21% (-2.2 pts); Away win 59% → 62% (+3.5 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid."
}