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{
  "away": "Korona Kielce",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0075,
  "explanation": "Home win: 59% against a market price of 60% (-0.8%).\nExpected goals Lech Poznan 1.99 – 1.04 Korona Kielce.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 58% (uncertainty ±6.5%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+28% goals at home) adds 3.2 pts to home win.\nLech Poznan's attack (1.19× the league rate) adds 2.3 pts to home win.\nRest days (Lech Poznan 3, Korona Kielce 7) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nKorona Kielce's defence (0.94× the league rate against) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.8%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 61% → 59% (-1.7 pts); Draw 22% → 22% (+0.5 pts); Away win 17% → 18% (+1.2 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 63% → 60%; Draw 21% → 22%; Away win 16% → 18%.",
  "fixture": 1553194,
  "home": "Lech Poznan",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T15:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ekstraklasa",
  "league_api_id": 106,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6009,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-106-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.58",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.5934,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.8%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 61% → 59% (-1.7 pts); Draw 22% → 22% (+0.5 pts); Away win 17% → 18% (+1.2 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 63% → 60%; Draw 21% → 22%; Away win 16% → 18%."
}