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Entry #1417: pick published

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Guabirá v Oriente Petrolero: Home win 46% @ 2.20 (Value)

Written: 2026-10-18T23:21:05.193743+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 3a696a13f0684110072ef55ab2c07a26b9608fff11b80c0edf051dcaabfeedfd
Stored hash: 2e16af3e3107a21920609ae858e7ec8dfd2f7f0e6a7ba61f775607956d7af65a
Recomputed: 2e16af3e3107a21920609ae858e7ec8dfd2f7f0e6a7ba61f775607956d7af65a

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Oriente Petrolero",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0396,
  "explanation": "Home win: 46% against a market price of 42% (+4.0%).\nExpected goals Guabirá 2.32 – 1.11 Oriente Petrolero.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 63% (uncertainty ±8.3%), so it carries 18% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+58% goals at home) adds 3.4 pts to home win.\nRest days (Guabirá 6, Oriente Petrolero 8) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nGuabirá missing 2.9 regular starters; Oriente Petrolero missing 4.5 regular starters adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nGuabirá's defence (1.19× the league rate against) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nTagged Value: our 46% beats the market's 42%.\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Guabirá 4-2-3-1, Oriente Petrolero 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 44% → 46% (+1.4 pts); Away win 31% → 30% (-1.3 pts).\nTag changed from Avoid to Value.",
  "fixture": 1619335,
  "home": "Guabirá",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T23:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 344,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4177,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-344-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.20",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.4574,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "value",
  "tag_reason": "our 46% beats the market's 42%",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Guabirá 4-2-3-1, Oriente Petrolero 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 44% → 46% (+1.4 pts); Away win 31% → 30% (-1.3 pts).\nTag changed from Avoid to Value."
}

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