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{
  "away": "RB Bragantino",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0434,
  "explanation": "Home win: 34% against a market price of 29% (+4.3%).\nExpected goals Remo 1.54 – 1.28 RB Bragantino.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 33% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+41% goals at home) adds 3.9 pts to home win.\nRest days (Remo 8, RB Bragantino 6) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nRemo's defence (1.08× the league rate against) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nRemo missing 3.3 regular starters: Zé Ivaldo, Marcelo Rangel, D. Tchamba; RB Bragantino missing 2.3 regular starters adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.3% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Remo 5-4-1, RB Bragantino 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 34% (-1.4 pts); Draw 28% → 26% (-1.3 pts); Away win 37% → 40% (+2.8 pts).",
  "fixture": 1492418,
  "home": "Remo",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T22:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie A",
  "league_api_id": 71,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2927,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-71-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "3.21",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.3362,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.3% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Remo 5-4-1, RB Bragantino 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 34% (-1.4 pts); Draw 28% → 26% (-1.3 pts); Away win 37% → 40% (+2.8 pts)."
}