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{
  "away": "Always Ready",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0058,
  "explanation": "Away win: 37% against a market price of 38% (-0.6%).\nExpected goals The Strongest 1.70 – 1.57 Always Ready.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 35% (uncertainty ±8.3%), so it carries 22% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+58% goals at home) takes 2.8 pts from away win.\nAlways Ready's attack (1.40× the league rate) adds 2.4 pts to away win.\nAlways Ready's defence (0.72× the league rate against) adds 2.2 pts to away win.\nThe Strongest's attack (1.27× the league rate) takes 1.5 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.6%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: The Strongest 3-4-3, Always Ready 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities moved by less than half a point.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.",
  "fixture": 1619334,
  "home": "The Strongest",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T21:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 344,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3784,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-344-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.41",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.3726,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.6%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: The Strongest 3-4-3, Always Ready 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities moved by less than half a point.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win."
}