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{
  "away": "Penarol",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.033,
  "explanation": "Home win: 32% against a market price of 29% (+3.3%).\nExpected goals Liverpool Montevideo 1.32 – 1.25 Penarol.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±5.8%), so it carries 35% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+20% goals at home) adds 2.1 pts to home win.\nPenarol's attack (1.25× the league rate) takes 2.0 pts from home win.\nPenarol's defence (0.89× the league rate against) takes 1.4 pts from home win.\nLiverpool Montevideo missing 1.4 regular starters; Penarol missing 3.1 regular starters adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.3% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Liverpool Montevideo, Penarol.\nOur probabilities: Home win 30% → 32% (+2.0 pts); Draw 29% → 28% (-1.0 pts); Away win 41% → 40% (-1.0 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch.",
  "fixture": 1644704,
  "home": "Liverpool Montevideo",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T21:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 268,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2877,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-268-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "3.13",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.3207,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.3% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Liverpool Montevideo, Penarol.\nOur probabilities: Home win 30% → 32% (+2.0 pts); Draw 29% → 28% (-1.0 pts); Away win 41% → 40% (-1.0 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch."
}