Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #1410: pick published

Hash verified

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto v Aldosivi: Home win 36% @ 2.80 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T20:41:07.672037+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 02ea896d196439c21c10d752230664443ff097f2f3b44ee20a51c75f79eff367
Stored hash: a32ed40a87ce9c2c8a0c1cc8f9fdce8631e9b67d8e150e39c945e8af16899954
Recomputed: a32ed40a87ce9c2c8a0c1cc8f9fdce8631e9b67d8e150e39c945e8af16899954

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Aldosivi",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0184,
  "explanation": "Home win: 36% against a market price of 34% (+1.8%).\nExpected goals Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1.08 – 0.91 Aldosivi.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±6.2%), so it carries 37% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 2.9 pts to home win.\nEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto's attack (0.84× the league rate) takes 2.2 pts from home win.\nAldosivi's defence (1.11× the league rate against) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto's defence (1.08× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.8%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Aldosivi 4-4-1-1, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 5-3-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 36% (+0.9 pts); Away win 32% → 31% (-1.0 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 33% → 34%; Away win 34% → 33%.",
  "fixture": 1493189,
  "home": "Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T21:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
  "league_api_id": 128,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3366,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-128-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.80",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.3551,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.8%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Aldosivi 4-4-1-1, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 5-3-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 36% (+0.9 pts); Away win 32% → 31% (-1.0 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 33% → 34%; Away win 34% → 33%."
}

#1409 #1411

Latest entries

1415 in total