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{
  "away": "Flamengo",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0372,
  "explanation": "Away win: 42% against a market price of 45% (-3.7%).\nExpected goals Bahia 1.27 – 1.17 Flamengo.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 34% (uncertainty ±5.5%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+41% goals at home) takes 2.5 pts from away win.\nFlamengo's attack (1.28× the league rate) adds 2.2 pts to away win.\nFlamengo's defence (0.81× the league rate against) adds 1.7 pts to away win.\nBahia missing 1.3 regular starters; Flamengo missing 1.9 regular starters: Ayrton Lucas, G. de Arrascaeta takes 0.6 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.7%).\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Bahia 4-3-3, Flamengo 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 32% → 32% (-0.7 pts); Away win 41% → 42% (+0.7 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1492412,
  "home": "Bahia",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T21:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie A",
  "league_api_id": 71,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4548,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-71-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.10",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.4176,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.7%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Bahia 4-3-3, Flamengo 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 32% → 32% (-0.7 pts); Away win 41% → 42% (+0.7 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid."
}