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{
  "away": "Universitario",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0158,
  "explanation": "Away win: 36% against a market price of 37% (-1.6%).\nExpected goals Alianza Atletico 1.39 – 1.19 Universitario.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 32% (uncertainty ±6.7%), so it carries 28% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+54% goals at home) takes 2.9 pts from away win.\nUniversitario's defence (0.81× the league rate against) adds 1.5 pts to away win.\nUniversitario's attack (1.20× the league rate) adds 1.5 pts to away win.\nAlianza Atletico's defence (0.88× the league rate against) takes 1.1 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.6%).\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Universitario 3-1-4-2, Alianza Atletico 4-1-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 36% → 36% (-0.7 pts); Draw 28% → 29% (+0.7 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.",
  "fixture": 1549509,
  "home": "Alianza Atletico",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T20:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 281,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3745,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-281-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.47",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.3587,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.6%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Universitario 3-1-4-2, Alianza Atletico 4-1-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 36% → 36% (-0.7 pts); Draw 28% → 29% (+0.7 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win."
}