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Entry #1503: pick published

Hash verified

Monterrey v CF Pachuca: Home win 56% @ 1.62 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-19T04:00:06.831925+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: de5c9758d7d1013b5e8af1aa3d8b8b5837b82db2ccbb7eb58d7fb3ebde30bb87
Stored hash: b7cd5d9f8b0dbc1058183e5d4e9ea968cfa0140ebb1a5f21f9ff658e42b2c52b
Recomputed: b7cd5d9f8b0dbc1058183e5d4e9ea968cfa0140ebb1a5f21f9ff658e42b2c52b

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "CF Pachuca",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0267,
  "explanation": "Home win: 56% against a market price of 59% (-2.7%).\nExpected goals Monterrey 1.69 – 1.17 CF Pachuca.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±7.0%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+32% goals at home) adds 2.8 pts to home win.\nMonterrey's attack (1.09× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nCF Pachuca's defence (0.92× the league rate against) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nMonterrey missing 2.6 regular starters; CF Pachuca missing 3.3 regular starters adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.7%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 55% → 56% (+1.6 pts); Away win 22% → 20% (-1.1 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1551001,
  "home": "Monterrey",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-19T01:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga MX",
  "league_api_id": 262,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5882,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-262-v6)",
  "odds_taken": "1.62",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.5615,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 55% → 56% (+1.6 pts); Away win 22% → 20% (-1.1 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid."
}

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