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Entry #1420: pick published

Hash verified

Monterrey v CF Pachuca: Away win 22% @ 4.88 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-19T00:30:02.015009+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 134d10e163042fe8625002478d4919eac6e72d5d6bc490eb36a216ab9d2e7551
Stored hash: 2ba8bef5db436b70ec3c8be2451d3081a59f4a68db6b008654011eee255f57f5
Recomputed: 2ba8bef5db436b70ec3c8be2451d3081a59f4a68db6b008654011eee255f57f5

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "CF Pachuca",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0319,
  "explanation": "Away win: 22% against a market price of 18% (+3.2%).\nExpected goals Monterrey 1.58 – 1.24 CF Pachuca.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 29% (uncertainty ±5.4%), so it carries 32% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+32% goals at home) takes 2.4 pts from away win.\nMonterrey's attack (1.09× the league rate) takes 0.8 pts from away win.\nCF Pachuca's defence (0.92× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to away win.\nRest days (Monterrey 8, CF Pachuca 7) adds 0.3 pts to away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.2% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1551001,
  "home": "Monterrey",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-19T01:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga MX",
  "league_api_id": 262,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1835,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-262-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "4.88",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.2154,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.2% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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