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Entry #1421: pick published

Hash verified

Deportivo Cali v Junior: Home win 48% @ 1.91 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-19T00:30:03.919937+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 2ba8bef5db436b70ec3c8be2451d3081a59f4a68db6b008654011eee255f57f5
Stored hash: 22055f4b52b2297dd0d028878c2e434e9c9a723d5b5c40194038bb9c32456d76
Recomputed: 22055f4b52b2297dd0d028878c2e434e9c9a723d5b5c40194038bb9c32456d76

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Junior",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0131,
  "explanation": "Home win: 48% against a market price of 50% (-1.3%).\nExpected goals Deportivo Cali 1.30 – 0.87 Junior.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 46% (uncertainty ±5.8%), so it carries 37% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+42% goals at home) adds 4.3 pts to home win.\nJunior's attack (1.15× the league rate) takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nRest days (Deportivo Cali 8, Junior 4) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nDeportivo Cali's defence (0.89× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.3%).",
  "fixture": 1549826,
  "home": "Deportivo Cali",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-19T01:10:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera A",
  "league_api_id": 239,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4951,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-239-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.91",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4819,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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