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Entry #21: pick published

Hash verified

Al-Hazm v Al-Fateh: Home win 38% @ 2.42 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-15T13:14:49.437982+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 0987e08717e4a5e8be37afb1a27b2f16049e3b3eb30dcdd67a59e24c03c74443
Stored hash: 8338b837d8faf3c8699726d9c7799786dd371aad213bde7b586fa7cb9ce5134f
Recomputed: 8338b837d8faf3c8699726d9c7799786dd371aad213bde7b586fa7cb9ce5134f

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Al-Fateh",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0023,
  "explanation": "Home win: 38% against a market price of 38% (+0.2%).\nExpected goals Al-Hazm 1.16 – 0.86 Al-Fateh.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±12.5%), so it carries 9% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nAl-Fateh's attack (0.63× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nAl-Hazm's attack (0.85× the league rate) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.2%).",
  "fixture": 1603047,
  "home": "Al-Hazm",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-15T15:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Pro League",
  "league_api_id": 307,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3825,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-307-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.42",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3849,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#20 #22

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