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Entry #22: pick published

Hash verified

Dinamo Minsk v Slavia Mozyr: Home win 63% @ 1.47 (Banker)

Written: 2026-10-15T13:14:51.019284+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 8338b837d8faf3c8699726d9c7799786dd371aad213bde7b586fa7cb9ce5134f
Stored hash: ea07f43b82404366db4043559b268545fd10fc2ef7751cb502bd1afa1edf9c6c
Recomputed: ea07f43b82404366db4043559b268545fd10fc2ef7751cb502bd1afa1edf9c6c

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Slavia Mozyr",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.0086,
  "explanation": "Home win: 63% against a market price of 64% (-0.9%).\nExpected goals Dinamo Minsk 1.73 – 0.82 Slavia Mozyr.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 58% (uncertainty ±10.4%), so it carries 14% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nDinamo Minsk's attack (1.21× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nDinamo Minsk's defence (0.80× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Banker: 63% likely, uncertainty only ±1.5%, market agrees.",
  "fixture": 1525930,
  "home": "Dinamo Minsk",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-15T15:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 116,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6418,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-116-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.47",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6332,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "banker",
  "tag_reason": "63% likely, uncertainty only ±1.5%, market agrees",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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