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Entry #23: pick published

Hash verified

Panathinaikos v Borac Banja Luka: Home win 77% @ 1.21 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-15T13:14:56.503742+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: ea07f43b82404366db4043559b268545fd10fc2ef7751cb502bd1afa1edf9c6c
Stored hash: f477a555205c89e123b5f57d67fa3a4c0086954b2c7041aa70a869a1d53eb618
Recomputed: f477a555205c89e123b5f57d67fa3a4c0086954b2c7041aa70a869a1d53eb618

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Borac Banja Luka",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0332,
  "explanation": "Home win: 77% against a market price of 80% (-3.3%).\nExpected goals Panathinaikos 1.73 – 1.46 Borac Banja Luka.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±12.8%), so it carries 13% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+31% goals at home) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nBorac Banja Luka's attack (1.13× the league rate) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nPanathinaikos's attack (1.08× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.3%).",
  "fixture": 1636464,
  "home": "Panathinaikos",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-15T16:45:00+00:00",
  "league": "UEFA Europa Conference League",
  "league_api_id": 848,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.8005,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-848-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.21",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.7674,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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