Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #24: pick published

Hash verified

Manisa F.K. v Esenler Erokspor: Away win 46% @ 1.97 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-15T13:14:59.391738+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: f477a555205c89e123b5f57d67fa3a4c0086954b2c7041aa70a869a1d53eb618
Stored hash: b69d1cf4f66e286af01735cd184eb21a07b0419521f9cdc996f0498cd5dc02cf
Recomputed: b69d1cf4f66e286af01735cd184eb21a07b0419521f9cdc996f0498cd5dc02cf

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Esenler Erokspor",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.014,
  "explanation": "Away win: 46% against a market price of 47% (-1.4%).\nExpected goals Manisa F.K. 1.25 – 1.47 Esenler Erokspor.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±8.6%), so it carries 21% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+30% goals at home) takes 1.4 pts from away win.\nEsenler Erokspor's defence (0.79× the league rate against) adds 1.3 pts to away win.\nManisa F.K.'s defence (1.12× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to away win.\nEsenler Erokspor's attack (1.10× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.4%).",
  "fixture": 1585783,
  "home": "Manisa F.K.",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-15T17:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "1. Lig",
  "league_api_id": 204,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4717,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-204-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.97",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4577,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.4%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#23 #25

Latest entries

146 in total