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Entry #25: pick published

Hash verified

Muğlaspor v Bursaspor: Away win 57% @ 1.58 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-15T13:15:02.239543+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: b69d1cf4f66e286af01735cd184eb21a07b0419521f9cdc996f0498cd5dc02cf
Stored hash: 2b506ba8739cefb42b32fc3899ab524e6383c09746ab5c825b9538c157dfca2c
Recomputed: 2b506ba8739cefb42b32fc3899ab524e6383c09746ab5c825b9538c157dfca2c

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Bursaspor",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0218,
  "explanation": "Away win: 57% against a market price of 59% (-2.2%).\nExpected goals Muğlaspor 1.16 – 1.18 Bursaspor.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 35% (uncertainty ±13.7%), so it carries 9% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+30% goals at home) takes 0.5 pts from away win.\nMuğlaspor's defence (0.82× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from away win.\nBursaspor's attack (1.16× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to away win.\nBursaspor's defence (0.81× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.2%).",
  "fixture": 1585785,
  "home": "Muğlaspor",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-15T17:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "1. Lig",
  "league_api_id": 204,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5944,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-204-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.58",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5726,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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