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Entry #26: pick published

Hash verified

ML Vitebsk v Torpedo Zhodino: Home win 73% @ 1.28 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-15T13:15:03.526588+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 2b506ba8739cefb42b32fc3899ab524e6383c09746ab5c825b9538c157dfca2c
Stored hash: 5862ad4d90821a44d14a673abf2bbeed35459940fd09afe6efe3ccc7bc22bce7
Recomputed: 5862ad4d90821a44d14a673abf2bbeed35459940fd09afe6efe3ccc7bc22bce7

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Torpedo Zhodino",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.0134,
  "explanation": "Home win: 73% against a market price of 74% (-1.3%).\nExpected goals ML Vitebsk 2.00 – 0.92 Torpedo Zhodino.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 61% (uncertainty ±10.2%), so it carries 12% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nML Vitebsk's attack (1.34× the league rate) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nML Vitebsk's defence (0.81× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.3%).",
  "fixture": 1525934,
  "home": "ML Vitebsk",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-15T17:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 116,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.74,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-116-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.28",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.7265,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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