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Entry #27: pick published

Hash verified

Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Nassr: Away win 45% @ 2.05 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-15T13:15:06.554230+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 5862ad4d90821a44d14a673abf2bbeed35459940fd09afe6efe3ccc7bc22bce7
Stored hash: 9b92d142f4baafe4bb388106ac1ed3ea5a282168de410c66d9b17662a6455970
Recomputed: 9b92d142f4baafe4bb388106ac1ed3ea5a282168de410c66d9b17662a6455970

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Al-Nassr",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.006,
  "explanation": "Away win: 45% against a market price of 45% (-0.6%).\nExpected goals Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.21 – 2.01 Al-Nassr.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 36% (uncertainty ±16.2%), so it carries 6% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nAl-Ahli Jeddah's attack (1.65× the league rate) takes 1.0 pts from away win.\nAl-Nassr's attack (1.55× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.6%).",
  "fixture": 1603044,
  "home": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Pro League",
  "league_api_id": 307,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4535,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-307-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.05",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4475,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#26 #28

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