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{
  "away": "Oxford United",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0151,
  "explanation": "Home win: 41% against a market price of 42% (-1.5%).\nExpected goals Mansfield Town 1.45 – 1.71 Oxford United.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 31% (uncertainty ±9.1%), so it carries 13% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nOxford United's attack (1.13× the league rate) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.5%).",
  "fixture": 1564359,
  "home": "Mansfield Town",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-15T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "League One",
  "league_api_id": 41,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4226,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-41-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.23",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4075,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}