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Entry #29: pick published

Hash verified

FC Copenhagen v SC Braga: Home win 39% @ 2.51 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-15T13:15:14.047121+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: bcb599a1535974441bbe6cb2689c1456642fa4e5c5bd49297980cc784e778f72
Stored hash: 98773ce4e5f6a19d40f51006511edb7a5d91ed49bbbd404e8381f188f60eee0c
Recomputed: 98773ce4e5f6a19d40f51006511edb7a5d91ed49bbbd404e8381f188f60eee0c

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "SC Braga",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0173,
  "explanation": "Home win: 39% against a market price of 38% (+1.7%).\nExpected goals FC Copenhagen 1.71 – 1.14 SC Braga.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 50% (uncertainty ±11.1%), so it carries 15% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+31% goals at home) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nFC Copenhagen's attack (1.27× the league rate) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nSC Braga's defence (0.80× the league rate against) takes 1.3 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.7%).",
  "fixture": 1636406,
  "home": "FC Copenhagen",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-15T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "UEFA Europa Conference League",
  "league_api_id": 848,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3769,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-848-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.51",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3942,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#28 #30

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