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Entry #30: pick published

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Huracan v Gimnasia L.P.: Home win 38% @ 2.54 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-15T13:15:17.741011+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 98773ce4e5f6a19d40f51006511edb7a5d91ed49bbbd404e8381f188f60eee0c
Stored hash: 41d7c9e63f7d07135e94ba9fa357b2859d10ac2cdeb4b082c30db8d64092a37b
Recomputed: 41d7c9e63f7d07135e94ba9fa357b2859d10ac2cdeb4b082c30db8d64092a37b

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Gimnasia L.P.",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0079,
  "explanation": "Home win: 38% against a market price of 37% (+0.8%).\nExpected goals Huracan 1.25 – 1.00 Gimnasia L.P..\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±8.3%), so it carries 20% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+28% goals at home) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nGimnasia L.P.'s attack (1.08× the league rate) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nGimnasia L.P.'s defence (1.05× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.8%).",
  "fixture": 1493190,
  "home": "Huracan",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-15T23:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
  "league_api_id": 128,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3699,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-128-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.54",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3779,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.8%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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