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{
  "away": "Rot-Weiß Essen",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0582,
  "explanation": "Home win: 34% against a market price of 28% (+5.8%).\nExpected goals FC Ingolstadt 04 1.51 – 1.40 Rot-Weiß Essen.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±3.1%), so it carries 50% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) adds 2.6 pts to home win.\nRot-Weiß Essen's attack (1.09× the league rate) takes 1.2 pts from home win.\nFC Ingolstadt 04's attack (1.03× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nRest days (FC Ingolstadt 04 3, Rot-Weiß Essen 4) takes 0.3 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.8% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1584040,
  "home": "FC Ingolstadt 04",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "3. Liga",
  "league_api_id": 80,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2769,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-80-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "3.18",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.335,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 5.8% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}