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{
  "away": "Sochaux",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0172,
  "explanation": "Home win: 53% against a market price of 54% (-1.7%).\nExpected goals Metz 1.43 – 1.06 Sochaux.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±9.8%), so it carries 17% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRest days (Metz 5, Sochaux 8) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+10% goals at home) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nSochaux's attack (0.89× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nSochaux's defence (0.94× the league rate against) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.7%).",
  "fixture": 1552499,
  "home": "Metz",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ligue 2",
  "league_api_id": 62,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5443,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-62-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.74",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5272,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}