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Entry #325: pick published

Hash verified

Slavia Praha v Hradec Králové: Home win 69% @ 1.35 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:02:01.761480+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: b35970a8ff9ff87926bfa53fb039a5200af9666ec6652f4e846d1d72bd2c6d59
Stored hash: dccc0db4a089b61de50858a20390216e9ce5ed4e46263b293db5fa4914c46563
Recomputed: dccc0db4a089b61de50858a20390216e9ce5ed4e46263b293db5fa4914c46563

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Hradec Králové",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0161,
  "explanation": "Home win: 69% against a market price of 71% (-1.6%).\nExpected goals Slavia Praha 1.97 – 0.84 Hradec Králové.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 63% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 22% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nSlavia Praha's attack (1.64× the league rate) adds 4.4 pts to home win.\nSlavia Praha's defence (0.69× the league rate against) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+17% goals at home) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nHradec Králové's defence (0.87× the league rate against) takes 1.2 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.6%).",
  "fixture": 1560047,
  "home": "Slavia Praha",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Czech Liga",
  "league_api_id": 345,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7056,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-345-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.35",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6895,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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