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Entry #324: pick published

Hash verified

Pardubice v Zlin: Home win 55% @ 1.62 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:02:00.130343+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 7d67e6f3be220b5a3f9d43f58384412917d8f9cad29568b2c3fe57153e49269a
Stored hash: b35970a8ff9ff87926bfa53fb039a5200af9666ec6652f4e846d1d72bd2c6d59
Recomputed: b35970a8ff9ff87926bfa53fb039a5200af9666ec6652f4e846d1d72bd2c6d59

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Zlin",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0389,
  "explanation": "Home win: 55% against a market price of 59% (-3.9%).\nExpected goals Pardubice 1.36 – 1.19 Zlin.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±8.4%), so it carries 21% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nZlin's defence (1.18× the league rate against) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+17% goals at home) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nPardubice's attack (0.87× the league rate) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nPardubice's defence (1.08× the league rate against) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.9%).",
  "fixture": 1560041,
  "home": "Pardubice",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Czech Liga",
  "league_api_id": 345,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5853,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-345-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.62",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5463,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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