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Entry #323: pick published

Hash verified

Amed v Konyaspor: Home win 51% @ 1.90 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:58.983375+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 2d45485bf2fd40531cf198d62becdc1070cc358340380ced31c65c64bde81968
Stored hash: 7d67e6f3be220b5a3f9d43f58384412917d8f9cad29568b2c3fe57153e49269a
Recomputed: 7d67e6f3be220b5a3f9d43f58384412917d8f9cad29568b2c3fe57153e49269a

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Konyaspor",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0094,
  "explanation": "Home win: 51% against a market price of 50% (+0.9%).\nExpected goals Amed 2.07 – 1.10 Konyaspor.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 57% (uncertainty ±10.8%), so it carries 13% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nAmed's attack (1.45× the league rate) adds 2.1 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nKonyaspor's attack (0.86× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.9%).",
  "fixture": 1584430,
  "home": "Amed",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Süper Lig",
  "league_api_id": 203,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5004,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-203-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.90",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5098,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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