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Entry #322: pick published

Hash verified

KAMAZ v FK Neftekhimik: Home win 46% @ 2.05 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:57.761591+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: cee4dc317e9ac5b771a5c2cb1d18ec0c7946c4432e429766b7c13dfeb6e2cabe
Stored hash: 2d45485bf2fd40531cf198d62becdc1070cc358340380ced31c65c64bde81968
Recomputed: 2d45485bf2fd40531cf198d62becdc1070cc358340380ced31c65c64bde81968

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "FK Neftekhimik",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": -0.01,
  "explanation": "Home win: 45% against a market price of 46% (-1.0%).\nExpected goals KAMAZ 1.24 – 0.90 FK Neftekhimik.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±6.7%), so it carries 32% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 2.4 pts to home win.\nFK Neftekhimik's attack (0.87× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nRest days (KAMAZ 7, FK Neftekhimik 8) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nKAMAZ's attack (0.96× the league rate) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.0%).",
  "fixture": 1577549,
  "home": "KAMAZ",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "First League",
  "league_api_id": 236,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.465,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-236-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.05",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.455,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.0%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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