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Entry #321: pick published

Hash verified

Rosengård W v Vittsjö W: Home win 51% @ 1.83 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:56.541408+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: b2ed3730f28238e2a83944205dc63a3290df5a25a0dee6989d4cbc87db63257e
Stored hash: cee4dc317e9ac5b771a5c2cb1d18ec0c7946c4432e429766b7c13dfeb6e2cabe
Recomputed: cee4dc317e9ac5b771a5c2cb1d18ec0c7946c4432e429766b7c13dfeb6e2cabe

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Vittsjö W",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0046,
  "explanation": "Home win: 51% against a market price of 51% (+0.5%).\nExpected goals Rosengård W 1.60 – 1.02 Vittsjö W.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 52% (uncertainty ±8.6%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+17% goals at home) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nRosengård W's defence (0.79× the league rate against) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nRosengård W's attack (1.07× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nVittsjö W's defence (0.95× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.5%).",
  "fixture": 1495584,
  "home": "Rosengård W",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Damallsvenskan",
  "league_api_id": 549,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5055,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-549-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.83",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5101,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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