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Entry #320: pick published

Hash verified

Benevento v Vicenza Virtus: Home win 48% @ 1.99 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:55.535154+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 2bcb15eebc93cf64410220a09823e0b1b8d432222a1f8bf9ceee4e24dbe1a198
Stored hash: b2ed3730f28238e2a83944205dc63a3290df5a25a0dee6989d4cbc87db63257e
Recomputed: b2ed3730f28238e2a83944205dc63a3290df5a25a0dee6989d4cbc87db63257e

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Vicenza Virtus",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0037,
  "explanation": "Home win: 48% against a market price of 48% (+0.4%).\nExpected goals Benevento 1.75 – 1.17 Vicenza Virtus.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 50% (uncertainty ±9.6%), so it carries 17% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+33% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nVicenza Virtus's defence (1.08× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.4%).",
  "fixture": 1601554,
  "home": "Benevento",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie B",
  "league_api_id": 136,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4758,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-136-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.99",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4795,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.4%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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