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Entry #319: pick published

Hash verified

Venezia v Napoli: Away win 57% @ 1.70 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:54.119454+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 82ef28931032cc09f3b5463a942cc134360dcfa8fe0a9d441a300efc404be784
Stored hash: 2bcb15eebc93cf64410220a09823e0b1b8d432222a1f8bf9ceee4e24dbe1a198
Recomputed: 2bcb15eebc93cf64410220a09823e0b1b8d432222a1f8bf9ceee4e24dbe1a198

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Napoli",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.001,
  "explanation": "Away win: 57% against a market price of 57% (-0.1%).\nExpected goals Venezia 0.93 – 1.75 Napoli.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 56% (uncertainty ±10.9%), so it carries 13% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nVenezia's defence (1.28× the league rate against) adds 1.4 pts to away win.\nNapoli's attack (1.20× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to away win.\nNapoli's defence (0.85× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nRest days (Venezia 5, Napoli 4) adds 0.4 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.1%).",
  "fixture": 1550156,
  "home": "Venezia",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie A",
  "league_api_id": 135,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5694,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-135-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.70",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5685,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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