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Entry #318: pick published

Hash verified

Sandviken v Ostersunds FK: Home win 35% @ 2.96 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:52.373419+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 5e5b1f8af8af039b2e043671521da842af5c7aa3a043d523dabe0ef8d29e1c88
Stored hash: 82ef28931032cc09f3b5463a942cc134360dcfa8fe0a9d441a300efc404be784
Recomputed: 82ef28931032cc09f3b5463a942cc134360dcfa8fe0a9d441a300efc404be784

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Ostersunds FK",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0364,
  "explanation": "Home win: 35% against a market price of 31% (+3.6%).\nExpected goals Sandviken 1.32 – 1.11 Ostersunds FK.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±5.2%), so it carries 38% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) adds 2.1 pts to home win.\nOstersunds FK's defence (0.92× the league rate against) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nOstersunds FK's attack (0.91× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nSandviken's attack (1.03× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.6% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1497726,
  "home": "Sandviken",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Superettan",
  "league_api_id": 114,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3087,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-114-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.96",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3451,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.6% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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