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Entry #36: pick published

Hash verified

Mansfield Town v Oxford United: Home win 39% @ 2.34 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-15T18:30:05.163427+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: e647ed953e671be0b3e34618c3a80bfee1b4a75ada60b02b370608d5085c0c26
Stored hash: 9a794d90fca28efe30799f46a5ad159be75dae4a7bbc8cbd27c4fd82ddab7c53
Recomputed: 9a794d90fca28efe30799f46a5ad159be75dae4a7bbc8cbd27c4fd82ddab7c53

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Oxford United",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0123,
  "explanation": "Home win: 39% against a market price of 40% (-1.2%).\nExpected goals Mansfield Town 1.45 – 1.71 Oxford United.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 31% (uncertainty ±9.1%), so it carries 13% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nOxford United's attack (1.13× the league rate) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.2%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 41% → 39% (-1.8 pts); Away win 33% → 35% (+1.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 42% → 40%; Away win 32% → 34%.",
  "fixture": 1564359,
  "home": "Mansfield Town",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-15T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "League One",
  "league_api_id": 41,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4022,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-41-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.34",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.39,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 41% → 39% (-1.8 pts); Away win 33% → 35% (+1.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 42% → 40%; Away win 32% → 34%."
}

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