Check any pick we ever made

{
  "away": "Torpedo Zhodino",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.0106,
  "explanation": "Home win: 70% against a market price of 71% (-1.1%).\nExpected goals ML Vitebsk 2.00 – 0.92 Torpedo Zhodino.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 61% (uncertainty ±10.2%), so it carries 12% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nML Vitebsk's attack (1.34× the league rate) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nML Vitebsk's defence (0.81× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.1%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 74% → 71%, draw 18% → 20%, away 8% → 9%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 73% → 70% (-2.9 pts); Draw 19% → 20% (+1.3 pts); Away win 8% → 10% (+1.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 74% → 71%; Draw 18% → 20%; Away win 8% → 9%.",
  "fixture": 1525934,
  "home": "ML Vitebsk",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-15T17:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 116,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7086,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-116-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.34",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.6979,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.1%)",
  "trigger": "event: odds moved",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 74% → 71%, draw 18% → 20%, away 8% → 9%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 73% → 70% (-2.9 pts); Draw 19% → 20% (+1.3 pts); Away win 8% → 10% (+1.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 74% → 71%; Draw 18% → 20%; Away win 8% → 9%."
}