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Entry #34: pick published

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Dinamo Minsk v Slavia Mozyr: Home win 62% @ 1.50 (Banker)

Written: 2026-10-15T15:56:30.168866+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 544f4e991c0776ed867f9e64a3e7c52c3954ed6faaa01f459ec047b004ba17c2
Stored hash: 01c3102370e4c9ef0ea97d20ba6d4e3c728d5cb51b81e0403beabb6bdceeee55
Recomputed: 01c3102370e4c9ef0ea97d20ba6d4e3c728d5cb51b81e0403beabb6bdceeee55

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Slavia Mozyr",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.007,
  "explanation": "Home win: 62% against a market price of 63% (-0.7%).\nExpected goals Dinamo Minsk 1.73 – 0.82 Slavia Mozyr.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 58% (uncertainty ±10.4%), so it carries 14% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nDinamo Minsk's attack (1.21× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nDinamo Minsk's defence (0.80× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Banker: 62% likely, uncertainty only ±1.5%, market agrees.\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 63% → 62% (-1.1 pts); Draw 22% → 23% (+0.5 pts); Away win 15% → 15% (+0.5 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 64% → 63%; Draw 22% → 22%; Away win 14% → 15%.",
  "fixture": 1525930,
  "home": "Dinamo Minsk",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-15T15:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 116,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6296,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-116-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.50",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.6226,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "banker",
  "tag_reason": "62% likely, uncertainty only ±1.5%, market agrees",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 63% → 62% (-1.1 pts); Draw 22% → 23% (+0.5 pts); Away win 15% → 15% (+0.5 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 64% → 63%; Draw 22% → 22%; Away win 14% → 15%."
}

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