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Entry #33: pick published

Hash verified

Al-Hazm v Al-Fateh: Home win 43% @ 2.14 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-15T15:56:28.872235+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: ce5de47a4d08caa1eb43e59d57e7b8b1e5ca44fa7af295ed321f104491f8789f
Stored hash: 544f4e991c0776ed867f9e64a3e7c52c3954ed6faaa01f459ec047b004ba17c2
Recomputed: 544f4e991c0776ed867f9e64a3e7c52c3954ed6faaa01f459ec047b004ba17c2

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Al-Fateh",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0031,
  "explanation": "Home win: 43% against a market price of 44% (-0.3%).\nExpected goals Al-Hazm 1.16 – 0.86 Al-Fateh.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±12.5%), so it carries 9% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nAl-Fateh's attack (0.63× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nAl-Hazm's attack (0.85× the league rate) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.3%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 38% → 43% (+4.8 pts); Away win 35% → 30% (-4.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 38% → 44%; Away win 36% → 31%.",
  "fixture": 1603047,
  "home": "Al-Hazm",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-15T15:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Pro League",
  "league_api_id": 307,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4363,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-307-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.14",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4331,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 38% → 43% (+4.8 pts); Away win 35% → 30% (-4.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 38% → 44%; Away win 36% → 31%."
}

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