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{
  "away": "Al-Fayha",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0216,
  "explanation": "Home win: 41% against a market price of 43% (-2.2%).\nExpected goals Al Khaleej Saihat 0.86 – 1.16 Al-Fayha.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 24% (uncertainty ±10.8%), so it carries 10% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nAl Khaleej Saihat's attack (0.63× the league rate) takes 1.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.2%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 45% → 41% (-4.2 pts); Draw 28% → 28% (+0.7 pts); Away win 27% → 31% (+3.5 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 48% → 43%; Draw 26% → 27%; Away win 26% → 30%.",
  "fixture": 1603049,
  "home": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-15T14:50:00+00:00",
  "league": "Pro League",
  "league_api_id": 307,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4305,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-307-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.16",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4088,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 45% → 41% (-4.2 pts); Draw 28% → 28% (+0.7 pts); Away win 27% → 31% (+3.5 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 48% → 43%; Draw 26% → 27%; Away win 26% → 30%."
}