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Entry #428: pick published

Hash verified

RED Star FC 93 v Saint Etienne: Away win 43% @ 2.17 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:36.597357+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 3851296e9223e7e9080a7387f59209c6ea6ef812d9391c6249798b2a032eab40
Stored hash: 2353a7c875f4cc4a52240364ffe51b2a1d8e7aea40c401a87209ad85c91934b1
Recomputed: 2353a7c875f4cc4a52240364ffe51b2a1d8e7aea40c401a87209ad85c91934b1

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Saint Etienne",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0011,
  "explanation": "Away win: 43% against a market price of 43% (-0.1%).\nExpected goals RED Star FC 93 1.40 – 1.66 Saint Etienne.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±7.6%), so it carries 29% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nSaint Etienne's attack (1.27× the league rate) adds 2.5 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+10% goals at home) takes 0.7 pts from away win.\nRED Star FC 93's attack (1.07× the league rate) takes 0.6 pts from away win.\nSaint Etienne's defence (0.93× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.1%).",
  "fixture": 1552501,
  "home": "RED Star FC 93",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ligue 2",
  "league_api_id": 62,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.432,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-62-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.17",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4308,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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