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Entry #429: pick published

Hash verified

Kimberley Mar del Plata v Deportivo Rincon: Draw 27% @ 3.94 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:37.826919+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 2353a7c875f4cc4a52240364ffe51b2a1d8e7aea40c401a87209ad85c91934b1
Stored hash: c9d45115e4fb5249b6a5ddd1871d9437cb0167148e78c5d2196471e467e853b8
Recomputed: c9d45115e4fb5249b6a5ddd1871d9437cb0167148e78c5d2196471e467e853b8

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Deportivo Rincon",
  "bookmakers": 4,
  "edge": 0.0516,
  "explanation": "Draw: 27% against a market price of 22% (+5.2%).\nExpected goals Kimberley Mar del Plata 1.21 – 0.63 Deportivo Rincon.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 32% (uncertainty ±1.2%), so it carries 46% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+73% goals at home) takes 4.2 pts from draw.\nDeportivo Rincon's defence (0.95× the league rate against) adds 0.3 pts to draw.\nTagged Avoid: one factor carries 88% of the edge, so it is fragile.",
  "fixture": 1641300,
  "home": "Kimberley Mar del Plata",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Torneo Federal A",
  "league_api_id": 134,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2168,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-134-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "3.94",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.2684,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "draw",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "one factor carries 88% of the edge, so it is fragile",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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