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Entry #430: pick published

Hash verified

Telstar v Feyenoord: Away win 69% @ 1.32 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:40.169413+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: c9d45115e4fb5249b6a5ddd1871d9437cb0167148e78c5d2196471e467e853b8
Stored hash: a9f37d48b65e012971bf20a3bca9f661e51effa76a0dfa048a508f604892a241
Recomputed: a9f37d48b65e012971bf20a3bca9f661e51effa76a0dfa048a508f604892a241

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Feyenoord",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0421,
  "explanation": "Away win: 69% against a market price of 73% (-4.2%).\nExpected goals Telstar 1.13 – 1.82 Feyenoord.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 52% (uncertainty ±7.3%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nFeyenoord's attack (1.45× the league rate) adds 3.3 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+19% goals at home) takes 1.0 pts from away win.\nFeyenoord's defence (0.86× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to away win.\nRest days (Telstar 6, Feyenoord 3) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-4.2%).",
  "fixture": 1552192,
  "home": "Telstar",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eredivisie",
  "league_api_id": 88,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7296,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-88-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.32",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6875,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-4.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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