Check any pick we ever made

{
  "away": "HFX Wanderers FC",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.013,
  "explanation": "Home win: 47% against a market price of 49% (-1.3%).\nExpected goals Vancouver FC 1.67 – 1.36 HFX Wanderers FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±6.3%), so it carries 35% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+31% goals at home) adds 3.6 pts to home win.\nVancouver FC's attack (0.95× the league rate) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nVancouver FC's defence (1.04× the league rate against) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.3%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 46% → 49%, draw 25% → 25%, away 29% → 26%; Both teams to score market moved: yes 66% → 62%, no 34% → 38%; Goals O/U 2.5 market moved: over 63% → 60%, under 37% → 40%; Goals O/U 3.5 market moved: over 41% → 38%, under 59% → 62%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 46% → 47% (+1.8 pts); Away win 30% → 28% (-2.0 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 46% → 49%; Away win 29% → 26%.",
  "fixture": 1517367,
  "home": "Vancouver FC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T02:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Canadian Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 479,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.487,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-479-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.90",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.474,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.3%)",
  "trigger": "event: odds moved",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 46% → 49%, draw 25% → 25%, away 29% → 26%; Both teams to score market moved: yes 66% → 62%, no 34% → 38%; Goals O/U 2.5 market moved: over 63% → 60%, under 37% → 40%; Goals O/U 3.5 market moved: over 41% → 38%, under 59% → 62%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 46% → 47% (+1.8 pts); Away win 30% → 28% (-2.0 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 46% → 49%; Away win 29% → 26%."
}