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Entry #505: pick published

Hash verified

Club Tijuana v Puebla: Home win 53% @ 1.71 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T03:04:07.658403+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: d54a7c8198ab79a937da335a4b08a7ea3ac602ea61475ffae1dbf163ebfa4df5
Stored hash: 76418fc801060507cd92e593f252e0d23c64b215b73e18d2664c327061d12fb2
Recomputed: 76418fc801060507cd92e593f252e0d23c64b215b73e18d2664c327061d12fb2

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Puebla",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0253,
  "explanation": "Home win: 53% against a market price of 56% (-2.5%).\nExpected goals Club Tijuana 1.52 – 1.01 Puebla.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 48% (uncertainty ±6.0%), so it carries 34% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+31% goals at home) adds 3.4 pts to home win.\nClub Tijuana missing 1.6 regular starters; Puebla missing 2.0 regular starters takes 1.2 pts from home win.\nPuebla's attack (0.89× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nPuebla's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.5%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Club Tijuana 4-1-4-1, Puebla 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 55% → 53% (-1.6 pts); Draw 24% → 25% (+0.7 pts); Away win 21% → 22% (+0.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 55% → 56%; Away win 21% → 20%.",
  "fixture": 1550994,
  "home": "Club Tijuana",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T03:05:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga MX",
  "league_api_id": 262,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5559,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-262-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.71",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.5306,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.5%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Club Tijuana 4-1-4-1, Puebla 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 55% → 53% (-1.6 pts); Draw 24% → 25% (+0.7 pts); Away win 21% → 22% (+0.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 55% → 56%; Away win 21% → 20%."
}

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