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{
  "away": "Talleres Cordoba",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0455,
  "explanation": "Home win: 62% against a market price of 67% (-4.5%).\nExpected goals Boca Juniors 1.54 – 0.85 Talleres Cordoba.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 52% (uncertainty ±6.0%), so it carries 33% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 3.0 pts to home win.\nBoca Juniors's attack (1.22× the league rate) adds 2.6 pts to home win.\nTalleres Cordoba's attack (0.92× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nBoca Juniors's defence (0.92× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-4.5%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 60% → 62% (+2.2 pts); Draw 25% → 24% (-0.7 pts); Away win 15% → 14% (-1.5 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 63% → 67%; Draw 24% → 22%; Away win 13% → 11%.",
  "fixture": 1493185,
  "home": "Boca Juniors",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T00:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
  "league_api_id": 128,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6675,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-128-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.44",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.622,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-4.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 60% → 62% (+2.2 pts); Draw 25% → 24% (-0.7 pts); Away win 15% → 14% (-1.5 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 63% → 67%; Draw 24% → 22%; Away win 13% → 11%."
}