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Entry #507: pick published

Hash verified

Atlante FC v U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Home win 38% @ 2.65 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T03:07:36.479866+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 70ee55f79decde58c412dca9795faf58ac20fb4b06b7b55e54a6675f69e63976
Stored hash: 19cf3e70dd1bc5f07402d9702dd59ecdd3072937974ac5580dab718eb7cf63c5
Recomputed: 19cf3e70dd1bc5f07402d9702dd59ecdd3072937974ac5580dab718eb7cf63c5

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "U.N.A.M. - Pumas",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.026,
  "explanation": "Home win: 38% against a market price of 35% (+2.6%).\nExpected goals Atlante FC 1.70 – 1.23 U.N.A.M. - Pumas.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 48% (uncertainty ±9.0%), so it carries 21% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+31% goals at home) adds 2.1 pts to home win.\nAtlante FC missing 0.5 regular starters; U.N.A.M. - Pumas missing 1.4 regular starters adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nU.N.A.M. - Pumas's attack (1.06× the league rate) takes 0.3 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+2.6%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 36% → 38% (+1.5 pts); Draw 27% → 27% (-0.6 pts); Away win 37% → 36% (-0.9 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.",
  "fixture": 1550995,
  "home": "Atlante FC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T03:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga MX",
  "league_api_id": 262,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3521,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-262-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.65",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3781,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+2.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 36% → 38% (+1.5 pts); Draw 27% → 27% (-0.6 pts); Away win 37% → 36% (-0.9 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win."
}

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