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{
  "combined_odds": "377.46",
  "combined_probability": 0.005195,
  "ev": 0.9608,
  "explanation": "Long shot slip for Sat 17 Oct 2026: 4 legs, one per match.\nBookmaker pays 377.46. By our numbers the fair price is 192.50, so we rate the chance that every leg wins at 0.52% (about 1 in 193; likely range 0.43%–0.63%). The market's own prices imply 0.18%.\nChance that at least 3 of the 4 legs win: 6.8%.\nExpected value at the quoted price: +96% per unit staked. If every leg were 2 points less likely than we think, it would be +40%. Margin of safety: each leg's probability can be overstated by up to 3.8 points before this slip stops being a value bet.\nSuggested stake: 0.03 units (0.125 Kelly, capped; 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll).\n\nWhy these legs:\n1. Ulsan Hyundai FC v Bucheon FC 1995: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.14 — our 51% vs the market's 43% (+7.9%), EV +10%. Value: our 51% beats the market's 43%.\n2. Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain: Home win @ 6.58 — our 18% vs the market's 14% (+4.5%), EV +21%. Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.5% too long by the market.\n3. Real Betis v Barcelona: Home win @ 6.57 — our 20% vs the market's 14% (+5.9%), EV +29%. Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.9% too long by the market.\n4. Sligo Rovers v Dundalk: Home win @ 4.08 — our 28% vs the market's 22% (+5.8%), EV +14%. Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.8% too long by the market.\n\nHow it was built: only legs tagged Value/Upset Watch whose probability beats the QUOTED price (bookmaker margin included) by at least 3% over the de-vigged market; one leg per match, because two legs on the same match are correlated; at most 4 legs per league; legs chosen to maximise a balance of chance and expected value.\nHonest note: a 4-leg slip loses far more often than it wins. Expect it to land about 1 in 193; its value is long-run, across many slips, not this one. Matches are treated as independent; if any leg's team news, price or tag changes before the first kickoff, the slip is rebuilt and the change is shown here.\n\nWhat changed since v5:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 14% → 12%, draw 19% → 17%, away 67% → 71%.\nRemoved: Qingdao Jonoon v Shenyang Urban Home win — no longer eligible: odds 7.11 outside 1.6–7.\nCombined odds 2296.22 → 377.46; chance 0.12% → 0.52%; EV +177% → +96%.",
  "fair_odds": "192.5",
  "legs": [
    {
      "fixture": 1507083,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-17T07:30:00+00:00",
      "league": "K League 1",
      "market": "OU25",
      "market_probability": 0.4342,
      "match": "Ulsan Hyundai FC v Bucheon FC 1995",
      "odds": "2.14",
      "probability": 0.513,
      "selection": "under",
      "tag": "value"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1552790,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-17T15:15:00+00:00",
      "league": "Ligue 1",
      "market": "1X2",
      "market_probability": 0.1394,
      "match": "Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain",
      "odds": "6.58",
      "probability": 0.1843,
      "selection": "home",
      "tag": "upset"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1570413,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:30:00+00:00",
      "league": "La Liga",
      "market": "1X2",
      "market_probability": 0.1377,
      "match": "Real Betis v Barcelona",
      "odds": "6.57",
      "probability": 0.1967,
      "selection": "home",
      "tag": "upset"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1492785,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-17T18:45:00+00:00",
      "league": "Premier Division",
      "market": "1X2",
      "market_probability": 0.2211,
      "match": "Sligo Rovers v Dundalk",
      "odds": "4.08",
      "probability": 0.2793,
      "selection": "home",
      "tag": "upset"
    }
  ],
  "replaces_seq": 632,
  "slate": "2026-10-17",
  "slip": 25,
  "stake_units": 0.03,
  "trigger": "event: odds moved",
  "type": "slip",
  "variant": "longshot",
  "variant_name": "Long shot",
  "version": 6,
  "what_changed": "What changed since v5:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 14% → 12%, draw 19% → 17%, away 67% → 71%.\nRemoved: Qingdao Jonoon v Shenyang Urban Home win — no longer eligible: odds 7.11 outside 1.6–7.\nCombined odds 2296.22 → 377.46; chance 0.12% → 0.52%; EV +177% → +96%."
}