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Entry #659: pick published

Hash verified

Ulsan Hyundai FC v Bucheon FC 1995: Away win 22% @ 4.85 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T07:21:02.600874+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 7a6a35eed5bd43919812eae31d24690323c30be157608430079a780ceccd0af3
Stored hash: 0fd917c0332be99a4efa83cf3f2fcc497cae7b3a195c40ae4bb48b076e98ad4c
Recomputed: 0fd917c0332be99a4efa83cf3f2fcc497cae7b3a195c40ae4bb48b076e98ad4c

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Bucheon FC 1995",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0345,
  "explanation": "Away win: 22% against a market price of 19% (+3.4%).\nExpected goals Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.31 – 1.10 Bucheon FC 1995.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 31% (uncertainty ±6.4%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nUlsan Hyundai FC missing 2.0 regular starters; Bucheon FC 1995 missing 4.8 regular starters takes 0.6 pts from away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+7% goals at home) takes 0.5 pts from away win.\nUlsan Hyundai FC's attack (1.05× the league rate) takes 0.4 pts from away win.\nBucheon FC 1995's attack (0.95× the league rate) takes 0.4 pts from away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.4% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-4-3, Bucheon FC 1995 3-4-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 49% → 53% (+3.7 pts); Draw 27% → 25% (-2.2 pts); Away win 23% → 22% (-1.5 pts).",
  "fixture": 1507083,
  "home": "Ulsan Hyundai FC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T07:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "K League 1",
  "league_api_id": 292,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1851,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-292-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "4.85",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.2196,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.4% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-4-3, Bucheon FC 1995 3-4-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 49% → 53% (+3.7 pts); Draw 27% → 25% (-2.2 pts); Away win 23% → 22% (-1.5 pts)."
}

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